Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 14.3 in January 2026, compared to 23.1 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 observations in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The time span covered by the series is from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 8.8; it recorded its maximum of 55.0 in June 1983; it reached a minimum of -40.4 in August 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 25.8 |
| 2025-12-31 | 23.1 |
| 2026-01-31 | 14.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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