Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.2 in October 2026, compared to 12.0 in September 2026.
Sample. There are 702 records in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Take a look at some statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index averaged 8.8; it hit a trough of -40.4 in August 2022; it reached a maximum of 55.0 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 12.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 4.20000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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