Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 25.8 in November 2025, compared to 21.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 691 data points in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time span going from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 8.8; it recorded its highest level of 55.0 in June 1983; it reached its lowest level of -40.4 in August 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 7.1 |
| 2025-10-31 | 21.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 25.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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