Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 17.2 in July 2026, compared to 8.3 in June 2026.
Sample. There are 699 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the graph above. The series covers the period extending from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 8.8; it reached a trough of -40.4 in August 2022; it recorded a maximum of 55.0 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 11.5 |
| 2026-06-30 | 8.3 |
| 2026-07-31 | 17.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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