Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 56.0 in September 2026, versus 58.3 in August.
Sample. There are 701 data points overall in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.3; it registered a minimum of -29.0 in December 1973; it hit a maximum of 78.0 in May 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 27.6 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.3 |
| 2026-09-30 | 56.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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