Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 27.6 in July 2026, compared to 45.8 in June.
Sample. There are 699 data points overall in the monthly series displayed in the figure above. The span of time covered by the series extends from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Here are a few statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.2; it reached its lowest level of -29.0 in December 1973; it peaked at 78.0 in May 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 46.2 |
| 2026-06-30 | 45.8 |
| 2026-07-31 | 27.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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