Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 54.8 in November 2025, versus 42.4 in October.
Sample. The monthly series displayed in the graph has a total of 691 observations. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -29.0 in December 1973; it attained a maximum of 78.0 in May 1983; it had an average value of 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 28.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | 42.4 |
| 2025-11-30 | 54.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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