Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 57.1 in January 2026, compared to 57.7 in December 2025.
Sample. The monthly series displayed in the plot has a total of 693 observations. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -29.0 in December 1973; it reached its maximum of 78.0 in May 1983; it had a mean of 35.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 54.8 |
| 2025-12-31 | 57.7 |
| 2026-01-31 | 57.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.