Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 48.3 in March 2026, versus 59.3 in February.
Sample. There are 695 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -29.0 in December 1973; it recorded its maximum of 78.0 in May 1983; it had an average value of 35.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 57.1 |
| 2026-02-28 | 59.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 48.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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