Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was -2.2 in October 2025, compared to -6.6 in September.
Sample. There are 690 observations in the monthly series presented in the plot above. The span of time covered by the series goes from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to -4.2; it reached a trough of -60.9 in December 1974; it reached its highest level of 45.1 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | -16.8 |
| 2025-09-30 | -6.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | -2.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did unfilled orders increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |