Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 37.8 in September 2026, compared to 47.4 in August 2026.
Sample. There are 701 observations in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 8.9; it recorded its maximum of 58.5 in March 1973; it hit a trough of -58.7 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 41.4 |
| 2026-08-31 | 47.4 |
| 2026-09-30 | 37.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did general business activity increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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