Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 33.3 in October 2026, versus 48.0 in September 2026.
Sample. This monthly time series has 702 records in total. The series covers the span of time stretching from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Here are some summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -49.0 in December 1973; it reached a maximum of 90.6 in June 1975; it averaged 33.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 58.3000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 48.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 33.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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