Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 33.3 in October 2025, compared to 28.6 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 690 data points overall in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the time range extending from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index peaked at 90.6 in June 1975; it hit a minimum of -49.0 in December 1973; it had a mean of 33.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 11.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | 33.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |