Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 51.6 in November 2025, versus 33.3 in October.
Sample. There are 691 observations in the monthly series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the span of time stretching from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 33.8; it reached a trough of -49.0 in December 1973; it attained a maximum of 90.6 in June 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 28.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | 33.3 |
| 2025-11-30 | 51.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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