Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 37.5 in June 2026, compared to 46.2 in May 2026.
Sample. There are 698 data points in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The time span covered by the series goes from May 1968 to June 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 90.6 in June 1975; it reached its minimum of -49.0 in December 1973; it averaged 33.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 37.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 46.2 |
| 2026-06-30 | 37.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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