Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 41.4 in March 2026, compared to 51.9 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 695 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The time span covered by the series goes from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 90.6 in June 1975; it reached its minimum of -49.0 in December 1973; it was equal on average to 33.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 39.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | 51.9 |
| 2026-03-31 | 41.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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