Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 37.1 in September 2026, compared to 48.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 701 records overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 18.7; it reached its minimum of -18.3 in December 2008; it attained a maximum of 51.1 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 30.1 |
| 2026-08-31 | 48.2 |
| 2026-09-30 | 37.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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