Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 26.7 in November 2025, versus 25.2 in October.
Sample. This monthly series has a total of 691 observations. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -18.7 in December 2008; it achieved a maximum of 51.1 in March 1973; it averaged 18.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 12.5 |
| 2025-10-31 | 25.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 26.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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