Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 30.1 in July 2026, compared to 41.2 in June 2026.
Sample. There are 699 data points in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The series covers the time range extending from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 18.6; it hit a maximum of 51.1 in March 1973; it reached its minimum of -18.3 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 30.9 |
| 2026-06-30 | 41.2 |
| 2026-07-31 | 30.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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