Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 21.2 in October 2025, versus 10.7 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 690 observations in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 9.4; it reached its lowest level of -66.0 in December 1974; it attained a maximum of 67.0 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 10.7 |
| 2025-10-31 | 21.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did new orders increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |