Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 31.0 in March 2026, versus 14.8 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 695 records in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time period going from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -66.0 in December 1974; it hit a peak of 67.0 in March 1973; it was equal on average to 9.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 21.4 |
| 2026-02-28 | 14.8 |
| 2026-03-31 | 31.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did new orders increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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