Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 21.4 in January 2026, compared to -11.5 in December 2025.
Sample. This monthly time series has 693 data points. The time period covered by the series is from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Check out some simple statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 9.4; it reached a minimum of -66.0 in December 1974; it peaked at 67.0 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | -16.1 |
| 2025-12-31 | -11.5 |
| 2026-01-31 | 21.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did new orders increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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