Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 7.3 in January 2026, compared to -1.5 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 data points in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The period covered by the series is from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged -1.0; it reached a maximum of 41.0 in September 1983; it reached a trough of -41.8 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 15.1 |
| 2025-12-31 | -1.5 |
| 2026-01-31 | 7.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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