Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 23.4 in October 2026, versus 11.6 in September.
Sample. The monthly time series plotted above has 702 data points overall. The series covers the time range going from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 41.0 in September 1983; it reached its minimum of -41.8 in December 2008; it was equal on average to -0.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 17.4000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 11.6000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 23.4000 |
Suggestion. To simplify exploration, we group indicators into worksheets and datasets. By scrolling down, you will discover how we arranged further material related to the statistics published here.
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.