Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 11.6 in September 2026, compared to 17.4 in August 2026.
Sample. This monthly series has 701 observations overall. The time range covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of -0.9; it reached its lowest level of -41.8 in December 2008; it reached its maximum of 41.0 in September 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 12.5 |
| 2026-08-31 | 17.4 |
| 2026-09-30 | 11.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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