Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 0.9 in October 2025, compared to -3.0 in September 2025.
Sample. This monthly time series has 690 observations. The series covers the period going from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to -1.0; it reached a minimum of -41.8 in December 2008; it recorded a maximum of 41.0 in September 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | -14.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | -3.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 0.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |