Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 61.3 in November 2025, compared to 48.5 in October.
Sample. There are 691 observations overall in the monthly time series shown in the chart above. The series covers the time span stretching from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Have a look at a few summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 85.0 in April 1983; it recorded a minimum of -42.6 in December 1973; it averaged 35.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 39.3 |
| 2025-10-31 | 48.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | 61.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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