Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 24.1 in July 2026, versus 41.7 in June.
Sample. There are 699 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The series covers the period going from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Have a look at a few summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 35.6; it hit a trough of -42.6 in December 1973; it attained a maximum of 85.0 in April 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 46.2 |
| 2026-06-30 | 41.7 |
| 2026-07-31 | 24.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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