Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 48.3 in March 2026, compared to 63.0 in February 2026.
Sample. There are 695 observations in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.6; it attained a maximum of 85.0 in April 1983; it reached a minimum of -42.6 in December 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 46.4 |
| 2026-02-28 | 63.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 48.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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