Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 48.5 in October 2025, versus 39.3 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 690 records overall. The series covers the time range going from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here are some simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 85.0 in April 1983; it reached a minimum of -42.6 in December 1973; it had a mean value of 35.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 26.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 39.3 |
| 2025-10-31 | 48.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |