Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 48.0 in September 2026, compared to 29.2 in August.
Sample. There are 701 records in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The period covered by the series is from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 15.4; it recorded a bottom of -33.4 in September 1990; it recorded its maximum of 61.2 in December 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 24.1 |
| 2026-08-31 | 29.2 |
| 2026-09-30 | 48.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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