Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 41.4 in March 2026, compared to 18.5 in February 2026.
Sample. The monthly time series shown in the chart has 695 observations. The time period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Have a look at some summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 15.3; it reached its highest level of 61.2 in December 2021; it reached its minimum of -33.4 in September 1990.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 35.7 |
| 2026-02-28 | 18.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | 41.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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