Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 49.8 in October 2025, compared to 42.4 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly series presented in the chart, there are 690 records overall. The series covers the time span stretching from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 35.5; it recorded its maximum of 85.8 in September 1975; it recorded a minimum of -42.7 in December 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 39.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 42.4 |
| 2025-10-31 | 49.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |