Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 49.6 in March 2026, compared to 54.1 in February.
Sample. There are 695 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Have a look at a few statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 85.8 in September 1975; it reached its lowest level of -42.7 in December 1973; it was equal on average to 35.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 32.9 |
| 2026-02-28 | 54.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | 49.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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