Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 62.3 in September 2026, compared to 66.0 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 701 records. The series covers the time period going from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.7; it reached a trough of -42.7 in December 1973; it hit a peak of 85.8 in September 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 35.1 |
| 2026-08-31 | 66.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 62.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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