Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 35.1 in July 2026, compared to 60.8 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 699 data points in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The span of time covered by the series is from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 35.6; it hit a minimum of -42.7 in December 1973; it reached its highest level of 85.8 in September 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 53.5 |
| 2026-06-30 | 60.8 |
| 2026-07-31 | 35.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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