Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 37.0 in October 2026, versus 62.3 in September 2026.
Sample. In the monthly time series presented in the plot, there are 702 records overall. The time span covered by the series goes from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Have a look at a few summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -42.7 in December 1973; it recorded a maximum of 85.8 in September 1975; it had a mean value of 35.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 66.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 62.3000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 37.0000 |
Tip. We categorize series into worksheets and datasets to facilitate exploration. Scrolling downwards, you will find how we structured further material related to the statistics found here.
Not for investment purposes. Any financial data hosted on FetchSeries are not suitable for investment purposes or other financial decisions. Users should ask for expert advice and do their own independent due diligence before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.