Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 32.9 in January 2026, compared to 39.1 in December 2025.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 693 observations. The time period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 35.5; it reached a minimum of -42.7 in December 1973; it reached its maximum of 85.8 in September 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 49.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 39.1 |
| 2026-01-31 | 32.9 |
Heads-up. We categorize series into worksheets and datasets to facilitate exploration. Scrolling downwards, you will find how we structured further material related to the statistics found here.
Not for investment purposes. Any financial data hosted on FetchSeries are not suitable for investment purposes or other financial decisions. Users should ask for expert advice and do their own independent due diligence before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.