Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 55.6 in November 2025, versus 49.8 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 691 data points. The series covers the span of time stretching from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index averaged 35.5; it reached its lowest level of -42.7 in December 1973; it reached a maximum of 85.8 in September 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 42.4 |
| 2025-10-31 | 49.8 |
| 2025-11-30 | 55.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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