Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 28.8 in January 2026, compared to 24.7 in December 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has 693 observations. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 15.2; it recorded a minimum of -27.8 in September 1990; it reached a maximum of 56.8 in April 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 31.3 |
| 2025-12-31 | 24.7 |
| 2026-01-31 | 28.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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