Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 29.5 in July 2026, compared to 30.8 in June 2026.
Sample. This monthly time series has 699 data points. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Here are a few statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 15.3; it hit a peak of 56.8 in April 2021; it reached its minimum of -27.8 in September 1990.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 31.7 |
| 2026-06-30 | 30.8 |
| 2026-07-31 | 29.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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