Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 21.4 in October 2025, compared to 23.7 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 690 observations overall in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time span stretching from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 15.1; it reached a minimum of -27.8 in September 1990; it recorded its highest level of 56.2 in December 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 12.7 |
| 2025-09-30 | 23.7 |
| 2025-10-31 | 21.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |