Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 35.7 in November 2025, versus 21.4 in October.
Sample. There are 691 records overall in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the time range going from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Check out a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -27.8 in September 1990; it achieved a maximum of 56.2 in December 2021; it had a mean value of 15.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 23.7 |
| 2025-10-31 | 21.4 |
| 2025-11-30 | 35.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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