Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 67.9 in January 2026, compared to 65.4 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 records overall in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 50.9; it reached a maximum of 96.0 in May 1977; it reached its minimum of -19.7 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 77.4 |
| 2025-12-31 | 65.4 |
| 2026-01-31 | 67.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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