Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 76.0 in September 2026, compared to 62.5 in August.
Sample. This monthly series has 701 records in total. The time span covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 51.0; it reached a maximum of 96.0 in May 1977; it reached a trough of -19.7 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 58.6 |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | 76.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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