Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 57.6 in October 2025, compared to 75.0 in September.
Sample. There are 690 data points in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time period going from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 50.8; it registered a minimum of -19.7 in December 2008; it hit a peak of 96.0 in May 1977.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 69.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 75.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 57.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |