Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 58.6 in July 2026, compared to 62.5 in the previous month.
Sample. This monthly time series has 699 data points in total. The time span covered by the series extends from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 51.0; it hit a maximum of 96.0 in May 1977; it reached a minimum of -19.7 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 69.2 |
| 2026-06-30 | 62.5 |
| 2026-07-31 | 58.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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