Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 77.4 in November 2025, versus 57.6 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 691 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The span of time covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 96.0 in May 1977; it reached a minimum of -19.7 in December 2008; it was equal on average to 50.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 75.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 57.6 |
| 2025-11-30 | 77.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.