Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was -8.7 in November 2025, versus 6.0 in October.
Sample. There are 691 records overall in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The span of time covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 13.0; it recorded a bottom of -74.8 in April 2020; it achieved a maximum of 48.3 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 26.1 |
| 2025-10-31 | 6.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | -8.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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