Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 22.2 in March 2026, versus 0.3 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 695 records in the monthly series presented in the chart above. The period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 13.0; it hit a peak of 48.3 in March 1973; it registered a minimum of -74.2 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 9.5 |
| 2026-02-28 | 0.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 22.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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