Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 9.3 in October 2025, versus 0.5 in September 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has 690 records. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of -1.0; it hit a trough of -32.4 in June 2022; it attained a maximum of 33.3 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 4.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.5 |
| 2025-10-31 | 9.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |