Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at -7.5 in October 2026, versus 18.6 in September.
Sample. In the monthly time series displayed in the plot, there are 702 records overall. The series covers the time span extending from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 33.3 in June 1983; it hit a trough of -32.4 in June 2022; it averaged -0.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 18.6000 |
| 2026-10-31 | -7.50000 |
Tip. To simplify complex analyses, we group indicators into data sets and worksheets. By moving down the page, you will find how we structured further material related to the statistics found here.
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.