Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at -0.4 in January 2026, versus 12.4 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 data points in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the span of time going from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of -1.0; it hit a minimum of -32.4 in June 2022; it hit a peak of 33.3 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 5.3 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12.4 |
| 2026-01-31 | -0.4 |
Hint. To simplify complex analyses, we group indicators into data sets and worksheets. By moving down the page, you will find how we structured further material related to the statistics found here.
Not for investment purposes. Information collected and published on this web site is not intended for investment purposes or any other financial decision. Users should consult expert advice and perform their own independent due diligence before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.