Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -4.7 in March 2026, versus 26.1 in February.
Sample. There are 695 records in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some summary statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of -0.9; it achieved a maximum of 33.3 in June 1983; it recorded a bottom of -32.4 in June 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | -0.4 |
| 2026-02-28 | 26.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | -4.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.