Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 61.3 in November 2025, compared to 42.4 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 691 observations in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The time span covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 34.9; it recorded its highest level of 84.0 in April 1981; it reached its minimum of -20.3 in March 2009.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 67.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 42.4 |
| 2025-11-30 | 61.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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