Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 37.9 in March 2026, compared to 48.1 in February.
Sample. The monthly time series displayed in the plot has a total of 695 observations. The span of time covered by the series extends from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.0; it reached its lowest level of -20.3 in March 2009; it hit a maximum of 84.0 in April 1981.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 67.9 |
| 2026-02-28 | 48.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | 37.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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