Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 17.3 in June 2026, compared to 19.2 in May 2026.
Sample. The monthly time series presented in the figure has 698 data points. The time period covered by the series is from May 1968 to June 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 8.8; it reached a trough of -41.5 in December 1973; it attained a maximum of 58.4 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | -4.1 |
| 2026-05-31 | 19.2 |
| 2026-06-30 | 17.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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