Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 6.6 in January 2026, versus 11.3 in December 2025.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 693 records. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 8.8; it hit a trough of -41.5 in December 1973; it achieved a maximum of 58.4 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 16.2 |
| 2025-12-31 | 11.3 |
| 2026-01-31 | 6.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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