Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 16.8 in September 2026, compared to 8.5 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 701 records in total. The period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Check out some descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 58.4 in June 1983; it reached a minimum of -41.5 in December 1973; it averaged 8.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 20.9 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | 16.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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