Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 15.0 in November 2025, compared to 19.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 691 data points overall in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Check out some simple statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 8.8; it reached its maximum of 58.4 in June 1983; it reached its minimum of -41.5 in December 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 12.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 19.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 15.0 |
Suggestion. One of the advantages of our web site is that we publish complete metadata. Find it below to better understand the attributes of the time series that you analyze.
Not for investment purposes. Data and analyses published on this web site are not not supposed to be used for investment purposes or other financial decisions. Users should consult expert advice and perform independent analysis before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.