Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 20.8 in October 2026, compared to 32.0 in September 2026.
Sample. This monthly time series has 702 data points. The series covers the time period going from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Have a look at some summary statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 13.1; it reached its maximum of 65.0 in March 1973; it reached a minimum of -71.4 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 29.2000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 32.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 20.8000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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