Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 37.9 in July 2026, compared to 12.5 in June 2026.
Sample. There are 699 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to July 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 13.1; it reached a minimum of -71.4 in April 2020; it recorded its highest level of 65.0 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 3.8 |
| 2026-06-30 | 12.5 |
| 2026-07-31 | 37.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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