Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was -19.4 in November 2025, compared to 12.1 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 691 data points in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time range going from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -71.4 in April 2020; it recorded its maximum of 65.0 in March 1973; it had an average value of 13.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 21.4 |
| 2025-10-31 | 12.1 |
| 2025-11-30 | -19.4 |
Suggestion. For easier exploration, we categorize indicators into data sets and worksheets. By scrolling down, you will find how we structured further information related to the statistics published here.
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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