Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 60.3 in June 2026, versus 45.7 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 698 data points in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The time span covered by the series extends from May 1968 to June 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -28.7 in December 1973; it hit a peak of 76.3 in June 1983; it had an average value of 35.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 40.8 |
| 2026-05-31 | 45.7 |
| 2026-06-30 | 60.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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