Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 48.4 in November 2025, the same as in October.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 691 observations. The series covers the time period going from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 35.1; it reached a minimum of -28.7 in December 1973; it reached its highest level of 76.3 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 31.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 48.4 |
| 2025-11-30 | 48.4 |
Hint. One of the pluses of using FetchSeries is that we provide complete metadata. Check it below to better understand the characteristics of the time series that you use in your research.
Not for investment purposes. Data and analyses accessible on FetchSeries are not meant for investment purposes or other financial decisions. Users should seek expert advice and perform their own independent due diligence before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.