Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 53.6 in March 2026, compared to 47.4 in February 2026.
Sample. There are 695 records in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The time range covered by the series extends from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -28.7 in December 1973; it hit a maximum of 76.3 in June 1983; it had a mean of 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 40.8 |
| 2026-02-28 | 47.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | 53.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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