Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 48.4 in October 2025, versus 31.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 690 records overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The time span covered by the series extends from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 35.0; it reached its minimum of -28.7 in December 1973; it achieved a maximum of 76.3 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 40.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 48.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |