Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 40.8 in January 2026, compared to 39.9 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The series covers the period extending from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Have a look at some simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.1; it hit a minimum of -28.7 in December 1973; it hit a peak of 76.3 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 43.9 |
| 2025-12-31 | 39.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 40.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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