Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 62.9 in October 2026, compared to 71.3 in September 2026.
Sample. There are 702 data points in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 51.0; it hit a maximum of 97.8 in May 1977; it reached a minimum of -20.4 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 62.9000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 71.3000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 62.9000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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