Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 59.8 in October 2025, versus 69.8 in September.
Sample. This monthly time series has 690 data points overall. The time period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 97.8 in May 1977; it reached a trough of -20.4 in December 2008; it had a mean of 50.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 68.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 69.8 |
| 2025-10-31 | 59.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |