Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 66.6 in January 2026, versus 64.6 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 observations in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 50.8; it reached its maximum of 97.8 in May 1977; it hit a trough of -20.4 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 74.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 64.6 |
| 2026-01-31 | 66.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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