Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 53.7 in March 2026, compared to 54.1 in February.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are a total of 695 records. The span of time covered by the series goes from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 97.8 in May 1977; it recorded a minimum of -20.4 in December 2008; it averaged 50.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 66.6 |
| 2026-02-28 | 54.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | 53.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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