Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 75.1 in November 2025, compared to 59.8 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 691 records overall in the monthly time series displayed in the plot above. The time span covered by the series is from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 50.8; it peaked at 97.8 in May 1977; it registered a minimum of -20.4 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 69.8 |
| 2025-10-31 | 59.8 |
| 2025-11-30 | 75.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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