Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 40.0 in March 2026, compared to 42.8 in February.
Sample. There are 695 data points overall in the monthly series presented in the chart above. The series covers the period going from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -39.7 in December 1973; it hit a peak of 91.0 in September 1975; it had an average value of 33.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 25.5 |
| 2026-02-28 | 42.8 |
| 2026-03-31 | 40.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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