Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 52.9 in September 2026, compared to 73.6 in the previous month.
Sample. This monthly time series has 701 data points in total. The series covers the period going from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here are a few statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached a trough of -39.7 in December 1973; it recorded its highest level of 91.0 in September 1975; it averaged 33.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 34.4 |
| 2026-08-31 | 73.6 |
| 2026-09-30 | 52.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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