Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 50.2 in June 2026, compared to 53.2 in May 2026.
Sample. In the monthly time series displayed in the chart, there are 698 data points. The span of time covered by the series extends from May 1968 to June 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -39.7 in December 1973; it hit a maximum of 91.0 in September 1975; it was equal on average to 33.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 40.8 |
| 2026-05-31 | 53.2 |
| 2026-06-30 | 50.2 |
Nugget of wisdom. We categorize indicators into worksheets and datasets for our users' convenience. If you navigate further down, you will find how we structured further information linked to the statistics provided here.
Not for investment purposes. Any data disseminated on this web site are not suitable for investment purposes or as a basis for financial-decision making. Users should consult expert advice and perform their own independent due diligence before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.