Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 9.1 in October 2025, compared to 0.0 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 690 observations overall in the monthly time series displayed in the plot above. The time period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -39.6 in June 2022; it reached its highest level of 28.0 in June 1983; it averaged -1.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 9.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |