Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 7.1 in January 2026, versus 15.4 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 records overall in the monthly series shown in the graph above. The time span covered by the series is from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -39.6 in June 2022; it recorded its highest level of 28.0 in June 1983; it had a mean of -1.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 9.7 |
| 2025-12-31 | 15.4 |
| 2026-01-31 | 7.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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