Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 16.0 in September 2026, versus -4.2 in August 2026.
Sample. The monthly time series plotted above has 701 records. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to -0.9; it reached its maximum of 28.0 in June 1983; it recorded a minimum of -39.6 in June 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 6.9 |
| 2026-08-31 | -4.2 |
| 2026-09-30 | 16.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.