Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 33.3 in October 2026, compared to 36.0 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 702 data points. The series covers the span of time stretching from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 18.7; it recorded its highest level of 52.0 in March 1973; it recorded a bottom of -16.0 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 41.7000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 33.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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