Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 18.2 in October 2025, versus 10.7 in September.
Sample. The monthly time series shown in the graph has 690 records. The series covers the time span going from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Take a look at a few summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 52.0 in March 1973; it reached its minimum of -16.0 in December 2008; it was equal on average to 18.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 30.8 |
| 2025-09-30 | 10.7 |
| 2025-10-31 | 18.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |