Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 39.3 in January 2026, versus 34.6 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 data points in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 52.0 in March 1973; it hit a trough of -16.0 in December 2008; it had a mean value of 18.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 25.8 |
| 2025-12-31 | 34.6 |
| 2026-01-31 | 39.3 |
Tip. One of the pluses of our web site is that we publish complete metadata. Check it below to delve deeper into the attributes of the series that you analyze.
Not for investment purposes. Data and analyses shared on FetchSeries are not intended for investment purposes or as a basis for making financial decisions. Users should obtain professional advice and perform their own independent due diligence before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.