Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 25.8 in November 2025, versus 18.2 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 691 records in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The series covers the time span stretching from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 18.5; it reached a minimum of -16.0 in December 2008; it recorded a maximum of 52.0 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 10.7 |
| 2025-10-31 | 18.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 25.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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