Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 31.0 in March 2026, compared to 18.5 in February 2026.
Sample. There are 695 records in the monthly series presented in the plot above. The series covers the time range going from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 52.0 in March 1973; it registered a minimum of -16.0 in December 2008; it had a mean value of 18.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 39.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | 18.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | 31.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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