Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was -8.6 in November 2025, compared to 18.2 in October.
Sample. There are 691 records overall in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the time range extending from May 1968 to November 2025.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -70.4 in April 2020; it hit a peak of 56.2 in March 1973; it was equal on average to 9.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 12.4 |
| 2025-10-31 | 18.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | -8.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did new orders increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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