Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 38.4 in March 2026, versus 50.1 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 695 records in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The series covers the span of time extending from May 1968 to March 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 83.9 in February 1977; it reached a trough of -21.1 in March 2009; it had a mean value of 34.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 61.8 |
| 2026-02-28 | 50.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | 38.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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