Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 45.7 in October 2025, compared to 64.8 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 690 observations in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to October 2025.
History. Here are some summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -21.1 in March 2009; it attained a maximum of 83.9 in February 1977; it had a mean value of 34.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 48.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 64.8 |
| 2025-10-31 | 45.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |