Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 61.8 in January 2026, versus 57.2 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 data points in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The time span covered by the series is from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 83.9 in February 1977; it hit a minimum of -21.1 in March 2009; it averaged 34.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 56.3 |
| 2025-12-31 | 57.2 |
| 2026-01-31 | 61.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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