Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 21.4 in January 2026, compared to 7.7 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 693 records in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the time period going from May 1968 to January 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -37.0 in February 1975; it achieved a maximum of 41.0 in March 1972; it had a mean of -1.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 19.4 |
| 2025-12-31 | 7.7 |
| 2026-01-31 | 21.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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