Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 0.0 in June 2026, compared to 7.7 in May.
Sample. In the monthly series displayed in the graph, there are 698 data points in total. The time range covered by the series is from May 1968 to June 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -37.0 in February 1975; it attained a maximum of 41.0 in March 1972; it had a mean value of -0.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 7.7 |
| 2026-06-30 | 0.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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