Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 25.0 in October 2026, compared to 8.0 in September.
Sample. There are 702 data points overall in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The time span covered by the series is from May 1968 to October 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged -0.8; it reached its maximum of 41.0 in March 1972; it registered a minimum of -37.0 in February 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 4.20000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 8.00000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 25.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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