Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 0.9 in August 2025, compared to -0.9 in July 2025.
Sample. There are 290 records in the montly time series presented in the figure above. The series covers the time period stretching from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Take a look at a few statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 4.7; it registered a minimum of -23.6 in September 2022; it peaked at 29.8 in January 2003.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -3.7 |
| 2025-07-31 | -0.9 |
| 2025-08-31 | 0.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |