Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 14.7 in March 2026, compared to 18.2 in February.
Sample. There are 297 data points in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the time range stretching from July 2001 to March 2026.
History. Here are a few simple statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 4.8; it registered a minimum of -23.6 in September 2022; it reached its highest level of 29.8 in January 2003.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 10.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | 18.2 |
| 2026-03-31 | 14.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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