Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 6.9 in August 2025, compared to 11.0 in July.
Sample. There are 290 observations overall in the montly time series presented in the plot above. The period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -22.0 in March 2009; it peaked at 42.8 in July 2021; it averaged 18.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 10.4 |
| 2025-07-31 | 11.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 6.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |