Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 26.2 in October 2025, versus 3.9 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 292 records in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The period covered by the series is from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -23.0 in September 2001; it attained a maximum of 72.0 in April 2002; it had a mean of 34.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 4.6 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 26.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |