Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 19.8 in October 2026, versus 16.8 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly series presented in the figure, there are 304 observations overall. The period covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to October 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 34.1; it recorded a maximum of 72.0 in April 2002; it reached a trough of -23.0 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 21.6000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 16.8000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 19.8000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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