Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 38.2 in March 2026, compared to 44.4 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 297 data points in total. The time span covered by the series extends from July 2001 to March 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 34.4; it reached a minimum of -23.0 in September 2001; it recorded a maximum of 72.0 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 46.4 |
| 2026-02-28 | 44.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | 38.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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