Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 21.8 in June 2026, compared to 27.2 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly series presented in the graph, there are 300 data points. The series covers the time range extending from July 2001 to June 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 34.3; it peaked at 72.0 in April 2002; it reached its minimum of -23.0 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 20.2 |
| 2026-05-31 | 27.2 |
| 2026-06-30 | 21.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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