Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 46.4 in January 2026, compared to 43.6 in December 2025.
Sample. This monthly time series has 295 data points. The series covers the time period going from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at a few simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 72.0 in April 2002; it recorded a bottom of -23.0 in September 2001; it had a mean of 34.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 20.2 |
| 2025-12-31 | 43.6 |
| 2026-01-31 | 46.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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