Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -2.9 in October 2025, compared to -3.9 in September.
Sample. There are 292 data points in the monthly series shown in the graph above. The series covers the time period stretching from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Here are some summary statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 42.3 in December 2003; it reached its minimum of -19.1 in March 2009; it was equal on average to 18.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | -0.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | -3.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | -2.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |