Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 6.9 in December 2025, versus 11.5 in November 2025.
Sample. The monthly time series plotted above has a total of 294 observations. The time range covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Check out some simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 18.8; it reached a trough of -19.1 in March 2009; it recorded a maximum of 42.3 in December 2003.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | -2.9 |
| 2025-11-30 | 11.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 6.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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