Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 10.9 in June 2026, versus 15.5 in May.
Sample. There are 300 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The period covered by the series extends from July 2001 to June 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 18.7; it reached a maximum of 42.3 in December 2003; it hit a minimum of -19.1 in March 2009.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 13.1 |
| 2026-05-31 | 15.5 |
| 2026-06-30 | 10.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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