Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -0.9 in August 2025, compared to 9.2 in July 2025.
Sample. In the montly time series plotted above, there are a total of 290 records. The series covers the span of time stretching from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -19.1 in March 2009; it recorded its maximum of 42.3 in December 2003; it had a mean of 19.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -7.3 |
| 2025-07-31 | 9.2 |
| 2025-08-31 | -0.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |