Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 1.8 in August 2025, unchanged with respect to July 2025.
Sample. In the montly time series shown in the plot, there are 290 records. The series covers the time period extending from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Have a look at some summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 20.3 in January 2018; it hit a trough of -21.3 in April 2009; it had an average value of 0.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -14.7 |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |