Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -4.0 in April 2026, compared to 5.9 in March.
Sample. There are 298 records overall in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The time range covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to April 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 0.5; it hit a peak of 20.3 in January 2018; it reached a trough of -21.3 in April 2009.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 8.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | 5.9 |
| 2026-04-30 | -4.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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