Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.1 in January 2026, compared to 11.9 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 records overall in the monthly series presented in the plot above. The series covers the span of time extending from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 0.5; it recorded its highest level of 20.3 in January 2018; it recorded a minimum of -21.3 in April 2009.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 8.7 |
| 2025-12-31 | 11.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 4.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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