Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 8.9 in June 2026, versus 1.9 in May.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the figure has a total of 300 records. The span of time covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to June 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 0.6; it recorded a minimum of -21.3 in April 2009; it recorded its maximum of 20.3 in January 2018.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | -4.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 1.9 |
| 2026-06-30 | 8.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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