Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was -5.2 in January 2026, versus -26.7 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 observations overall in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The span of time covered by the series goes from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 54.2 in May 2004; it hit a minimum of -61.9 in April 2020; it was equal on average to 10.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 16.3 |
| 2025-12-31 | -26.7 |
| 2026-01-31 | -5.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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