Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 55.4 in December 2025, compared to 62.5 in November 2025.
Sample. There are 294 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The series covers the period stretching from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -26.9 in September 2001; it reached a maximum of 76.7 in January 2022; it was equal on average to 41.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 65.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 62.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 55.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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