Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 52.6 in January 2026, compared to 55.4 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 observations overall in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the span of time stretching from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 41.8; it hit a maximum of 76.7 in January 2022; it reached its lowest level of -26.9 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 62.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 55.4 |
| 2026-01-31 | 52.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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