Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 32.5 in June 2026, versus 30.1 in May 2026.
Sample. In the monthly time series displayed in the figure, there are 300 observations overall. The series covers the time period stretching from July 2001 to June 2026.
History. Take a look at some simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 34.9; it registered a minimum of -5.7 in January 2009; it reached a maximum of 70.3 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 24.8 |
| 2026-05-31 | 30.1 |
| 2026-06-30 | 32.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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