Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 16.3 in August 2025, compared to 25.3 in July 2025.
Sample. There are 290 records overall in the montly series shown in the chart above. The time period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Check out some simple statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 35.0; it recorded a bottom of -6.6 in April 2025; it peaked at 70.3 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 26.1 |
| 2025-07-31 | 25.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 16.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |