Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 34.9 in October 2025, versus 16.6 in September.
Sample. In the monthly time series plotted above, there are a total of 292 observations. The time period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.0; it hit a trough of -6.6 in April 2025; it reached its maximum of 70.3 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 16.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 16.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | 34.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |