Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 29.1 in March 2026, versus 34.9 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 297 data points overall in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time range extending from July 2001 to March 2026.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a maximum of 70.3 in April 2002; it recorded a minimum of -5.7 in January 2009; it had an average value of 34.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 33.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | 34.9 |
| 2026-03-31 | 29.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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