Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 33.3 in January 2026, compared to 34.5 in December 2025.
Sample. In the monthly time series displayed in the plot, there are a total of 295 observations. The time period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at a few summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 34.9; it reached its maximum of 70.3 in April 2002; it recorded a minimum of -5.7 in January 2009.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 23.7 |
| 2025-12-31 | 34.5 |
| 2026-01-31 | 33.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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