Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 27.2 in October 2025, compared to 4.9 in September 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has 292 records overall. The period covered by the series is from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 73.0 in April 2002; it reached its minimum of -8.6 in May 2025; it averaged 34.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 6.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 27.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |