Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 49.5 in January 2026, compared to 43.6 in December 2025.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 295 records overall. The time period covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -8.6 in May 2025; it hit a peak of 73.0 in April 2002; it had a mean of 34.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 24.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 43.6 |
| 2026-01-31 | 49.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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