Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 40.2 in March 2026, compared to 45.5 in February.
Sample. There are 297 records overall in the monthly time series shown in the chart above. The time span covered by the series is from July 2001 to March 2026.
History. Take a look at some simple statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -8.6 in May 2025; it reached its highest level of 73.0 in April 2002; it had a mean value of 34.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 49.5 |
| 2026-02-28 | 45.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | 40.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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