Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 6.4 in August 2025, versus 5.5 in July 2025.
Sample. The montly time series shown in the chart has 290 records in total. The time range covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Here are a few statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 73.0 in April 2002; it hit a trough of -8.6 in May 2025; it averaged 34.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 11.0 |
| 2025-07-31 | 5.5 |
| 2025-08-31 | 6.4 |
Nugget of wisdom. A plus of using our web site is that we provide rich metadata. Check it below to better understand the characteristics of the series that you use in your work.
Not for investment purposes. Data provided on FetchSeries are not suitable for investment purposes or other financial decisions. Users should ask for expert advice and perform their own independent due diligence before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |