Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 43.6 in December 2025, compared to 24.0 in November.
Sample. There are 294 observations in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the span of time extending from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index averaged 34.7; it hit a trough of -8.6 in May 2025; it peaked at 73.0 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 27.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 24.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 43.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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