Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 30.3 in January 2026, compared to 33.5 in December 2025.
Sample. The monthly time series displayed in the chart has 295 records. The time range covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some simple statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 34.7; it hit a trough of -11.9 in September 2001; it reached a maximum of 69.5 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 19.3 |
| 2025-12-31 | 33.5 |
| 2026-01-31 | 30.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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