Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 16.0 in August 2025, versus 24.1 in July.
Sample. This montly series has 290 observations overall. The span of time covered by the series is from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 34.8; it reached its highest level of 69.5 in April 2002; it registered a minimum of -11.9 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 21.2 |
| 2025-07-31 | 24.1 |
| 2025-08-31 | 16.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |