Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 31.0 in March 2026, versus 34.7 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 297 records overall. The period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to March 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 34.6; it reached a trough of -11.9 in September 2001; it recorded its highest level of 69.5 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 30.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | 34.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 31.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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