Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 21.0 in October 2026, compared to 29.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 304 records overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The series covers the time range extending from July 2001 to October 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 34.5; it reached a maximum of 69.5 in April 2002; it reached a trough of -11.9 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 32.1000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 29.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 21.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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Discover the other time series included in this data set.