Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 19.6 in April 2026, compared to 31.0 in March.
Sample. The monthly time series shown in the figure has 298 observations. The period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to April 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 34.6; it reached its highest level of 69.5 in April 2002; it reached its lowest level of -11.9 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 34.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 31.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 19.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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