Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 30.1 in June 2026, compared to 33.5 in May 2026.
Sample. This monthly series has 300 records. The period covered by the series extends from July 2001 to June 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some simple statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -11.9 in September 2001; it recorded its highest level of 69.5 in April 2002; it had a mean value of 34.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 19.6 |
| 2026-05-31 | 33.5 |
| 2026-06-30 | 30.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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