Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 30.3 in October 2025, compared to 14.8 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 292 records overall in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The time span covered by the series extends from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 69.5 in April 2002; it reached its lowest level of -11.9 in September 2001; it had an average value of 34.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 16.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 14.8 |
| 2025-10-31 | 30.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |