Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was -5.7 in December 2025, versus 16.8 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 294 observations in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The period covered by the series is from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 10.3; it hit a maximum of 49.6 in April 2004; it reached a trough of -70.9 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 14.4 |
| 2025-11-30 | 16.8 |
| 2025-12-31 | -5.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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