Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 31.1 in October 2025, versus 9.8 in September.
Sample. There are 292 records overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The period covered by the series is from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -15.7 in September 2001; it achieved a maximum of 73.0 in April 2002; it was equal on average to 34.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 3.7 |
| 2025-09-30 | 9.8 |
| 2025-10-31 | 31.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |