Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 50.5 in January 2026, compared to 46.5 in December 2025.
Sample. In the monthly series shown in the figure, there are 295 data points. The time range covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Check out a few descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 73.0 in April 2002; it hit a minimum of -15.7 in September 2001; it had a mean value of 34.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 26.9 |
| 2025-12-31 | 46.5 |
| 2026-01-31 | 50.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.