Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 3.7 in August 2025, compared to 10.1 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 290 records overall in the montly series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the period extending from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Have a look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index averaged 34.6; it hit a maximum of 73.0 in April 2002; it reached a minimum of -15.7 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 13.8 |
| 2025-07-31 | 10.1 |
| 2025-08-31 | 3.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |