Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 7.9 in December 2025, versus 1.0 in November.
Sample. There are 294 observations overall in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the span of time going from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Check out a few statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 18.7 in March 2022; it registered a minimum of -20.5 in September 2001; it had an average value of -1.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 5.8 |
| 2025-11-30 | 1.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 7.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.