Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 1.8 in August 2025, as in the previous month.
Sample. There are 290 data points in the montly time series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the time period extending from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Check out some summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index attained a maximum of 20.3 in January 2018; it reached a trough of -21.3 in April 2009; it averaged 0.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -14.7 |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |