Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 7.8 in October 2025, compared to 4.9 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 292 data points overall in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time range going from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Check out some simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 20.3 in January 2018; it recorded a bottom of -21.3 in April 2009; it had an average value of 0.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 7.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |