Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 8.9 in June 2026, compared to 1.9 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 300 records overall in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The span of time covered by the series extends from July 2001 to June 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few simple statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index attained a maximum of 20.3 in January 2018; it recorded a minimum of -21.3 in April 2009; it was equal on average to 0.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | -4.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 1.9 |
| 2026-06-30 | 8.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.