Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 11.9 in December 2025, compared to 8.7 in November 2025.
Sample. There are 294 observations in the monthly series presented in the chart above. The series covers the time range extending from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of some statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -21.3 in April 2009; it peaked at 20.3 in January 2018; it had a mean of 0.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 7.8 |
| 2025-11-30 | 8.7 |
| 2025-12-31 | 11.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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