Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 10.3 in January 2026, versus 6.9 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 records overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The series covers the time span stretching from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -19.1 in March 2009; it attained a maximum of 42.3 in December 2003; it had a mean value of 18.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 11.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 6.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 10.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.