Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -0.9 in August 2025, versus 9.2 in July 2025.
Sample. In this montly series, there are 290 observations overall. The time range covered by the series extends from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 19.0; it recorded a maximum of 42.3 in December 2003; it hit a trough of -19.1 in March 2009.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -7.3 |
| 2025-07-31 | 9.2 |
| 2025-08-31 | -0.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |