Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 34.9 in January 2026, compared to 30.7 in December 2025.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the figure has a total of 295 records. The time period covered by the series is from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Have a look at a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a maximum of 69.7 in April 2002; it reached a minimum of -4.4 in January 2009; it had a mean of 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 22.4 |
| 2025-12-31 | 30.7 |
| 2026-01-31 | 34.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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