Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 26.2 in October 2026, versus 25.5 in September 2026.
Sample. This monthly series has 304 data points. The span of time covered by the series is from July 2001 to October 2026.
History. Check out some simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -4.4 in January 2009; it hit a peak of 69.7 in April 2002; it had an average value of 34.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 33.7000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 25.5000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 26.2000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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