Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 17.7 in April 2026, compared to 30.2 in March.
Sample. The monthly series displayed in the figure has 298 data points. The series covers the time period stretching from July 2001 to April 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 35.0; it reached its minimum of -4.4 in January 2009; it recorded its maximum of 69.7 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 33.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | 30.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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