Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 30.2 in March 2026, compared to 33.4 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 297 observations in the monthly series presented in the figure above. The series covers the time span going from July 2001 to March 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 69.7 in April 2002; it recorded a minimum of -4.4 in January 2009; it had an average value of 35.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 34.9 |
| 2026-02-28 | 33.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | 30.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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