Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 31.6 in October 2025, compared to 13.5 in September.
Sample. There are 292 data points in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The span of time covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to October 2025.
History. Have a look at some simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 69.7 in April 2002; it reached a minimum of -4.8 in April 2025; it was equal on average to 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 17.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 13.5 |
| 2025-10-31 | 31.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |