Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 33.3 in December 2025, versus 23.3 in November.
Sample. There are 294 observations in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The period covered by the series is from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Take a look at a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -4.8 in April 2025; it recorded a maximum of 69.7 in April 2002; it averaged 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 31.6 |
| 2025-11-30 | 23.3 |
| 2025-12-31 | 33.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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