Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 17.9 in August 2025, compared to 19.3 in the previous month.
Sample. In this montly series, there are 290 data points. The series covers the time range stretching from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -4.8 in April 2025; it hit a maximum of 69.7 in April 2002; it was equal on average to 35.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 23.0 |
| 2025-07-31 | 19.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 17.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |