Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 55.4 in December 2025, versus 62.5 in November 2025.
Sample. There are 294 observations in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The span of time covered by the series extends from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -26.9 in September 2001; it peaked at 76.7 in January 2022; it had an average value of 41.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 65.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 62.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 55.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.