Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 64.2 in August 2025, compared to 58.7 in July.
Sample. The montly series shown in the chart has 290 records in total. The series covers the time span stretching from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Take a look at some simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -26.9 in September 2001; it recorded its maximum of 76.7 in January 2022; it averaged 41.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 59.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | 58.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 64.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |