Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 52.6 in January 2026, versus 55.4 in December 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has 295 records. The series covers the time span going from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at a few simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -26.9 in September 2001; it reached a maximum of 76.7 in January 2022; it had a mean value of 41.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 62.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 55.4 |
| 2026-01-31 | 52.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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