Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 0.9 in August 2025, compared to -0.9 in July.
Sample. There are 290 records overall in the montly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the time period extending from July 2001 to August 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 29.8 in January 2003; it recorded a minimum of -23.6 in September 2022; it had a mean of 4.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -3.7 |
| 2025-07-31 | -0.9 |
| 2025-08-31 | 0.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |