Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 10.3 in January 2026, versus 12.9 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 observations in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The time span covered by the series is from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 4.7; it reached a maximum of 29.8 in January 2003; it hit a trough of -23.6 in September 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 1.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 10.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.