Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 12.9 in December 2025, compared to 1.0 in November.
Sample. The monthly time series presented in the graph has a total of 294 data points. The period covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Here are a few summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 29.8 in January 2003; it reached its minimum of -23.6 in September 2022; it had a mean value of 4.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 5.8 |
| 2025-11-30 | 1.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.