Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 19.6 in August 2026, versus -3.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 302 observations in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The period covered by the series extends from July 2001 to August 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some descriptive statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 4.8; it recorded its maximum of 29.8 in January 2003; it reached its lowest level of -23.6 in September 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 8.9 |
| 2026-07-31 | -3.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 19.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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