Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 19.6 in January 2026, compared to 13.9 in December 2025.
Sample. In the monthly series plotted above, there are 295 observations in total. The span of time covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -23.6 in March 2009; it achieved a maximum of 44.5 in April 2021; it had a mean value of 17.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 13.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 13.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 19.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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