Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 6.5 in February 2026, versus 4.8 in January.
Sample. There are 98 data points in the monthly series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the time span going from January 2018 to February 2026.
History. Take a look at a few summary statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -8.3 in January 2018; it peaked at 62.6 in March 2020; it averaged 16.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 4.8 |
| 2026-02-28 | 6.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.