Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 15.7 in November 2025, compared to 22.2 in October 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has 95 records overall. The series covers the time span stretching from January 2018 to November 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some summary statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 17.2; it recorded a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018; it achieved a maximum of 62.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 13.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 22.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 15.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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