Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 4.8 in January 2026, compared to 0.0 in December 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has a total of 97 observations. The time period covered by the series extends from January 2018 to January 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 16.9; it hit a maximum of 62.6 in March 2020; it recorded a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 15.7 |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 4.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.