Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 22.2 in October 2025, compared to 13.9 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 94 data points overall in the monthly series displayed in the figure above. The time period covered by the series extends from January 2018 to October 2025.
History. Have a look at some simple statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 62.6 in March 2020; it registered a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018; it had an average value of 17.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 18.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 13.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 22.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |