Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Company outlook: Future (improvement vs worsening; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for company outlook (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share reporting a worsening) was 23.2 in January 2026, compared to 16.9 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 260 records in the monthly time series shown in the chart above. The series covers the time span going from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a trough of -41.2 in April 2020; it recorded its maximum of 60.4 in November 2004; it was equal on average to 18.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 16.4 |
| 2025-12-31 | 16.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 23.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the outlook of your company improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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