Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 5.8 in October 2025, compared to 28.4 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 256 records in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The series covers the time period extending from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Check out a few summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 24.6; it attained a maximum of 53.7 in January 2017; it reached its lowest level of -19.5 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 21.6 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.4 |
| 2025-10-31 | 5.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |