Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 30.7 in January 2026, versus 31.0 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 259 records in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the time period stretching from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Have a look at a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -19.5 in March 2020; it recorded its highest level of 53.7 in January 2017; it averaged 24.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 27.7 |
| 2025-12-31 | 31.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 30.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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