Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 2.7 in February 2026, compared to 11.7 in January 2026.
Sample. In the monthly series plotted above, there are 261 data points. The time range covered by the series extends from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Here are a few summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -25.8 in October 2008; it recorded a maximum of 24.5 in June 2021; it had an average value of -0.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 4.2 |
| 2026-01-31 | 11.7 |
| 2026-02-28 | 2.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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