Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 4.9 in April 2026, compared to 4.1 in March 2026.
Sample. There are 263 records overall in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The series covers the span of time stretching from June 2004 to April 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to -0.2; it recorded its highest level of 24.5 in June 2021; it hit a minimum of -25.8 in October 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 2.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 4.1 |
| 2026-04-30 | 4.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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