Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -1.5 in November 2025, compared to 3.1 in October 2025.
Sample. This monthly time series has 258 observations in total. The time span covered by the series extends from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Here are some simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -25.8 in October 2008; it reached its highest level of 24.5 in June 2021; it had a mean value of -0.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | -10.3 |
| 2025-10-31 | 3.1 |
| 2025-11-30 | -1.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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