Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -1.5 in November 2025, compared to 3.1 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 257 observations overall in the monthly series presented in the figure above. The time period covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Check out some descriptive statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 24.5 in June 2021; it recorded a minimum of -25.8 in October 2008; it had a mean value of -0.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | -10.3 |
| 2025-10-31 | 3.1 |
| 2025-11-30 | -1.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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