Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 3.1 in October 2025, versus -10.3 in September.
Sample. There are 256 data points in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The time range covered by the series goes from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged -0.3; it reached a maximum of 24.5 in June 2021; it recorded a bottom of -25.8 in October 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | -1.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | -10.3 |
| 2025-10-31 | 3.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |