Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 11.7 in January 2026, compared to 4.2 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 259 observations in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The series covers the period going from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of -0.2; it reached its minimum of -25.8 in October 2008; it peaked at 24.5 in June 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | -1.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 4.2 |
| 2026-01-31 | 11.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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