Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -1.7 in July 2026, compared to -8.1 in June.
Sample. This monthly time series has 265 data points overall. The series covers the period stretching from June 2004 to July 2026.
History. Check out some descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 24.5 in June 2021; it hit a minimum of -25.8 in October 2008; it had an average value of -0.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | -2.9 |
| 2026-06-30 | -8.1 |
| 2026-07-31 | -1.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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