Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -2.9 in May 2026, compared to 4.9 in April.
Sample. This monthly time series has a total of 263 observations. The time period covered by the series extends from June 2004 to May 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of -0.2; it achieved a maximum of 24.5 in June 2021; it hit a minimum of -25.8 in October 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 4.1 |
| 2026-04-30 | 4.9 |
| 2026-05-31 | -2.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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